Democrats 2008: Don’t Write Off Edwards

For one thing, it’s too early.  For another, being frontrunner is tough, and either Obama or Hillary might need to rest in the wings for a bit and let someone else take some heat.

I think Obama has a lot of novelty shine, and that will wear off under the glare of frontrunner status (the process has already begun). Democrat primary voters do the same sort of “electability” calculus that GOP voters do, and if numbers like Harris Poll Interactive continue, they’ll look for someone who’s already been put through these fires. When Obama’s consistent lack of policies shines though, Edwards’ ready-prepped policy-heavy speeches are there. The New Media (left) will like Obama for being out on the war early, but will compare him disfavorably for more or less voting the same way Hillary has since.  His recent comments on letting a Bush veto go unchallenged, though rational, won’t help either.

Edwards is a little looney, but he’s as sincere as a trial lawyer can be, and a lot better at faking the rest than Clinton. I’m pretty sure women like Edwards more than Hillary, and that as they pay more attention to Clinton, that trend will increase. The New Media (left) will be nice to him, and compare his Iraq apology favorably with Clinton’s blatant triangulation and parsing of words. And the very people who would be put off by his security weakness (Security Moms) will be more focused on his likability, his sympathetic family situation, and a very refined populist message.  Unlike Gore, who couldn’t decide whether he was a populist or a new democrat, and unlike Clinton now, who’s reaching for more votes than she can grasp, Edwards knows who he is, and always has.  That’s going to figure heavily into the Leadership poll numbers.

He beats Obama on substance, and Hillary on sincerity (the real kind and the faked kind) and likability. I think all 3 characteristics will be players, even in a compressed primary. And I think Edwards scores heavily with the New Media (left), especially since all his potential negatives have already been out there, and are 2004’s news. I think the media will also assume in early ‘08 that the only foreign policy necessity will be completing an Iraq drawdown, and give Edward’s a break for being a lightweight there. When ‘me-toos’ go to the polls, they’re going to want someone to tell them how to vote, so the leftist bloggers are going to have more say than usual (picking up some of the slack left by the compressed primary schedule, decreased influence of Iowa/NH). I don’t think he’s a shoe-in, but that’s the calculus I see happening in his strategists’ heads. At this moment, I would say Edwards has a slight advantage over both Obama and Clinton.  Unfortunately for them, there are some things money can’t buy. 

The next post in the 2008 Winds series looks at the GOP, and also spends a lot of time on candidates that aren’t frontrunners.

Edwards Defends Couric’s Probing Interview

Youtube clips of the interview

ABC Wrote:

During the interview, Couric probed the Edwards’ decision to continue campaigning for president, despite the news this week that Mrs. Elizabeth Edwards has been diagnosed with incurable bone cancer.

Criticism of Couric’s interview surfaced in the blogosphere, some suggesting the interview was ‘insensitive’ and ‘callous’.

However the Edwards campaign said Mrs. Edwards felt the interview was fair.

Why did Edwards defend her?  It is better than looking defensive over somthing that a lot of people probably were thinking, plus, Edwards base of support consists of Couric (or former-Couric, as the case may be) viewers.  They’d probably rally to Edwards’ side anyway, given the cirucumstances (because even if you’re thinking the cynical, you’re not supposed to say it), but best not to risk it.

(Via ABC’s Political Radar)

Who Will Coburn Favor in ‘08?

So far, no word. However the Race 4 2008 has the Politico speculating about him possibly favoring McCain soon, and has him showing at a McCain fundraiser in Washington last week.

Showing at McCain’s swank shindig Wednesday at the Mandarin Oriental was Sen. Tom Coburn. Like McCain an outspoken critic of pork-barrel spending, the Okie from Muskogee also has considerable street cred with social conservatives. If he were to support his fellow maverick, Coburn, an obstetrician and vocal anti-abortion advocate, would probably become McCain’s top surrogate and validator with the pro-life community.

A Coburn aide told me that the senator is officially undecided but has great respect for Sen. McCain.

Keep an eye on this one.

Given McCain’s shakiness on taxes, his championing of CFR, and closeness to oh so many Democrats, I hope this stops at ‘great respect’. A man is not who is the last time you saw him, he’s who he has been from the beginning.  McCain may be saying the right stuff right now, but it’s awfully close to election season for a genuine conversion.  To boot, it’s a little early in the process to endorse a frontrunner.

(Via the Politico, HT Race 4 2008)

If you can only say nice things…

Don’t say anything at all, apparently.

On Leno last night, Biden ducked a chance to explain his prior code-word assualt on Sen. Barack Obama, responding to Jay’s offer with “Look, you can talk all you want about Obama. I’m not saying a word.” Probably a wise choice.

Leno thoughtfully closed the night with “Senator, thank you for coming on. You were quite articulate.”

(Via ABC’s Political Radar)