Democrats 2008: Don’t Write Off Edwards

For one thing, it’s too early.  For another, being frontrunner is tough, and either Obama or Hillary might need to rest in the wings for a bit and let someone else take some heat.

I think Obama has a lot of novelty shine, and that will wear off under the glare of frontrunner status (the process has already begun). Democrat primary voters do the same sort of “electability” calculus that GOP voters do, and if numbers like Harris Poll Interactive continue, they’ll look for someone who’s already been put through these fires. When Obama’s consistent lack of policies shines though, Edwards’ ready-prepped policy-heavy speeches are there. The New Media (left) will like Obama for being out on the war early, but will compare him disfavorably for more or less voting the same way Hillary has since.  His recent comments on letting a Bush veto go unchallenged, though rational, won’t help either.

Edwards is a little looney, but he’s as sincere as a trial lawyer can be, and a lot better at faking the rest than Clinton. I’m pretty sure women like Edwards more than Hillary, and that as they pay more attention to Clinton, that trend will increase. The New Media (left) will be nice to him, and compare his Iraq apology favorably with Clinton’s blatant triangulation and parsing of words. And the very people who would be put off by his security weakness (Security Moms) will be more focused on his likability, his sympathetic family situation, and a very refined populist message.  Unlike Gore, who couldn’t decide whether he was a populist or a new democrat, and unlike Clinton now, who’s reaching for more votes than she can grasp, Edwards knows who he is, and always has.  That’s going to figure heavily into the Leadership poll numbers.

He beats Obama on substance, and Hillary on sincerity (the real kind and the faked kind) and likability. I think all 3 characteristics will be players, even in a compressed primary. And I think Edwards scores heavily with the New Media (left), especially since all his potential negatives have already been out there, and are 2004’s news. I think the media will also assume in early ‘08 that the only foreign policy necessity will be completing an Iraq drawdown, and give Edward’s a break for being a lightweight there. When ‘me-toos’ go to the polls, they’re going to want someone to tell them how to vote, so the leftist bloggers are going to have more say than usual (picking up some of the slack left by the compressed primary schedule, decreased influence of Iowa/NH). I don’t think he’s a shoe-in, but that’s the calculus I see happening in his strategists’ heads. At this moment, I would say Edwards has a slight advantage over both Obama and Clinton.  Unfortunately for them, there are some things money can’t buy. 

The next post in the 2008 Winds series looks at the GOP, and also spends a lot of time on candidates that aren’t frontrunners.